THE ANALYSIS—THE SHOCKING FACTOR TO BE OR NOT TO BE

The Kangaroo Court.

The Colonial Defense Force (CDF) and the Kangaroo Court hurriedly sentenced Imran Kahn and the former foreign Minister Shahid Mahmood Qurashi in the cypher case. The kangaroo court sentenced each to a 10-year prison term.

The quick sentencing plot

The sentencing plot is built around keeping Khan in jail. That is, in the short run, advertise the death penalty and extract calm out of people with a less harsh sentence. There is no grand strategic thought behind expeditious sentencing. The reason for sentencing this early without due process has a few tactical benefits.

Plot’s tactical assessment

One, to instill disappointment among the voters to impact the voter turnout on February 08, 2024 elections. A contrary argument, the sentencing can also motivate people for a greater voter turnout.

Two, to slowly turn on the heat. The pattern has been, to arrest Khan and then immediately releasing him; then IK was jailed, and now the sentencing. When all is summed together, these methods are people conditioning strategies to develop a new norm.

Three, if protest across the country post February 2024 elections is expected, sentencing could turn difficult. This reason also suggests the risk of facing an uncontrolled situation. I address this likely scenario next.

Managed elections

The election day theme is well managed. Understandably, the people will participate with full enthusiasm. It is inconsequential if the election day is an uneventful day or the polling stations are blasted with improvised explosions to rig elections. Rigged election results will be announced.

The victorious independent candidates will be brought together to align with the preferences of the army regime. The regime is banking on the subdued population’s reluctance to protest. Else, the army high command would not have proceeded with the elections.

Election fraud and intimidation of elected representatives can become a catalyst for mass protest. The people will be left with a thought—what to do next?  When the people figure out the candidates are compromised and IK remains in jail, a people power revolution may come to their mind. Should they protest, GHQ will fall swiftly—within days and weeks. We have precedence.

Protests works in Pakistan

People Power Revolution in the Philippines (1986): Started after the 1981 elections was criticized for fraud. The revolution in Pakistan will not exactly unfold like Philippines, reason being, in Philippines the army sided with the people. Though I do recall, when the protests started in 1986, Ferdinand Marcos in February 1986, resigned in a span of a few days.

Rose Revolution in Georgia (2003): Fraud elections favoring the incumbent, Eduard Shevardnadze. Revolution was led by opposition leader Mikheil Saakashvili, which forced Shevardnadze to resign.

Orange Revolution in Ukraine (2004-2005): It was widely criticized for fraud in favor of Viktor Yanukovych. The protest resulted in a new vote.

Iranian Green Movement (2009): It began when presidential election faced allegations of fraud, leading to widespread protests. Despite the crackdown, the protests had a lasting impact on Iranian politics.

Prediction

The art of prediction in this case is almost an exact science in my view because of known quantities. The military high command has virtually no backing of her men and women in uniform. I expect certain collective of force are given bonus stipends (or bribes) to stand with the army high command.

The shocking factor is the people. As soon as the protest begins, especially triggered by an event, I do not see the people remaining peaceful in the three regions when they are met with subduing force. The three region excludes Sind and Punjab—the centers of paralysis. The GHQ cannot fall if Punjab remains subjugated.

When Punjab engages in protests, the most corrupt among the army generals will emerge and persuade Asim Munir to leave the country. As observed before, Gen. Kayani, marked by degenerative choices in career advised Musharraf that it was time for him to depart.

Bio: Mian Hameed is the author of MANIPULATION OF THE MIND: Our Children and Our Policy at Peril. He is a student of the U.S. and South Asia foreign policy. My articles do not present the conventional thoughts of the mainstream media. To read my work, click the Home link below.