Simplicity is the Answer to Pakistan’s Economic Complexity – Part III

This article, the last of the series was first published in December 15, 2021, in the South Asia Journal. I have republished Part III here, because the article does not appear in the list of articles under my name, written for SAJ.

In part I (found here) and part II (found here), I reasoned, because the conventional wisdom gets Pakistan wrong, the recommended Western economic models by the contemporary luminaries of economics will not work for improving the economic quality of life in Pakistan.

Part III, utilizes data points from the previous two articles for an algorithm borrowed from a robotic vacuum cleaner to improve the economic quality of life in Pakistan. The expectation is for Pakistan to emerge from the IMF structured programs.

A good algorithm repeats a process to ensure a task is completed efficiently. The vacuum cleaner’s algorithm uses artificial intelligence (AI) for cleaning the accessible space. The greater the accessible space, the larger a cleaning area it can map. The better the algorithm, the better is the path planning of coverage region (PPCR) in a room with minimal turns. –Source: ScienceDirect.

The algorithm is run repeatedly against the existing and future essential questions to complete tasks in the PPCR that grows. The converge region grows from AI of sensors in a vacuum cleaner.

This vacuum cleaner has three sensors. Sensor “A” deals with the essential questions. Sensor “B” overcomes the mafia cartel obstacle, and sensor “C” consistently thinks of making the PPCR efficiently larger and larger.

The sensors in vacuum cleaner are not concerned with the status quo—Pakistan’s wisdom, people’s lack of faith in regime, controlling authority, and capabilities. These do not come into play when the ‘styled” people develop a “belief” that the wisdom in use is from the divine.

In the current system, the sensors assume short run devaluation of currency. The algorithm assumes an expected Debt to GDP ratio will “rise by 10%” for developing countries. A rise in deficits will give rise to unemployment. Economic indices will not improve in a miraculous proportion to match the manufacturing economies of the exampled countries in part II. IMF will mandate increases in taxes, and energy costs.

The vacuum cleaner uses sensors to consume data points from the previous two articles as obstacles and guidance in path planning. In a robotic lingo, before the vacuum can start a task, the sensors must develop environmental model of the work space. The sensors develop the following map:

Pakistan is bipolar, where hope and tolerance can prevail as a strength. Pakistan army strengthens from corruption – Wherein the case of degeneracy, strength will overcome weakness. Spend within means. Solutions to Pakistan economic model must be simple, which means solutions for now must come from answering the essential questions. There is persistent presence of the Mafia cartels. Institutions are difficult or impossible to form. Development results come in isolation from the bipolar constraints. Success comes to the believers. People and the army are styled after the institution of Islam as in a belief structure. Foreign and domestic antibodies have joined hands. Army personnel has taken constitutional oath to fight internal and external enemies.

These sensors from logic have developed a habit of communicating with each other. Usually, they communicate about the unknowns in the environment to find the best and efficient methods for PPCR. In this way, the PPCR can complete an important function—build future maps from the sensory data. This vacuum cleaner has a central processing unit—the Pakistan army.

These sensors will take after the Islamic teachings by applying moderation, and are styled after the institute of “hope” and “believers,” for now. The unknowns in the environment will cause sensors to craft future essential questions, and can use additional Islamic institutional genetics to help with the PPCR optimization.

Before we un-box this newly arrived virtual vacuum cleaner, it is interesting to note, this vacuum cleaner is not a debt generating workflow, and nicely conforms to “and spend out of what We have provided for them.” In this case, the vacuum is spending its intellect (AI).

Similarly, before un-boxing, for a good measure, it is timely to address a few housekeeping items that may clutter the PPCR. Here, I point out the pseudo intellectuals’ assaults on the Pakistan army. One in my view is the shoddy intellectualism of Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa, that is likely resulted from a U.S. think tank’s sponsored book. Her book has culminated into targeting the Pakistan army as a conglomerate business. Later, Mr. Elliot Wilson, has recycled Siddiqa’s combative style for The Spectator, and has singled out the “largest of the lot,” the Fauji Foundation.

Pakistanis do not benefit from these authors failing to surface the fact that Fauji Foundation operates under the constitutional charter of Pakistan, and pays taxes. Fauji is not a Pakistan army organization. Its original funding came from the WWII war reparations given to the soldiers of the Indo-subcontinent. Those men of honor on the Pakistani side donated their share, and Fauji Foundation was created to benefit their future comrades.

It might very well be a decree of the sons and daughters of those soldiers that have donated their share of war reparations, not to allow the overflowing “modern intellectuals” the right to criticize Fauji.

In 2014, I had the opportunity to interview Fauji Foundation’s entire board of bright executives and a few CEOs over two days. Fauji is a professional organization. It is an immaculately run foundation dedicated to maximizing stockholder’s equity. Like any conglomerate, its operations may have the makings of improvement. Its key benefit, veterans are taken care of; is one reason for no homelessness and suicides. 

Fauji benefits from the institution of Islam’s traces (believers, hope and spend.) It shares a common success factor with the institution of the nuclear science—its success comes from running in isolation from the weaknesses of the bipolar Pakistanis. The algorithm makes note of it.

Now we can un-box the virtual vacuum cleaner, and turn it on. Before it can start a task, sensor “A” will initialize to develop the environmental model of the work space. It will grab hold of data—the essential questions from part II. Those are, a) What is one thing Pakistan can do that will enable a destitute in making a financial transaction? b) What is […] to maintain the intrinsic value of the financial transaction created in ‘a’? c) What one thing Pakistan can do where manufacturing cost of goods produced may fall in the short run, but will definitely fall over the long run?

  1. One can originate a financial transaction among the destitute on the basis of a Japanese principle, a ticket of Fureai Kippu. These tickets are computerized currency credits given to those that provide caring service have positive impact on society.

In the case of Pakistan, these credits for various services (health care & education) are spent in a private market via a clearinghouse. These credits, which is a currency will substantially pay for itself from taxation in a geometric progression. Digital credits disconnect taxation department’s corrupt link from the tax payers.

b. Maintaining intrinsic value of a financial transaction in a concept like, Fureai Kippu, which is a currency, is possible when it is tied to physical gold. These credits are not crypto currency.

Pakistan will have dual currency. The second one like Fureai Kippu. Cuba had two currencies for thirty years. Pakistan’s digital currency is not a legal tender. This means, it cannot be used for settling legal debts. Since gold backed digital currency holds the property of Dinar of the golden days, it lends a proven history. Digital currency is a wilt on the vine technique, you will read about. Dual currency for Pakistan is ever needful. During hyperinflation, people will replace using native currency to foreign. As an example, learn from the harmful process in Zimbabwe’s de jure dollarization.

c. Cost of goods produced will constantly go down if gold reserves are placed against buying raw materials. Gold coins appreciate approximately 22% each year. Basing a soccer price modeling on a certain fifteen years trend, where gold had appreciated 335%, in my assumed manufacturing cost of a soccer ball calculations, in the year one would cost 3.33 Oz gold, and the same in year three will have its manufacturing cost drop to 2.08 Oz of gold in comparison to its cost if it was produced by purchasing materials in rupees (fiat currency.)

South Korea, in an effort to bring down the cost of goods sold, centralized raw material imports to benefit volume purchases from competitive prices. Centralization is a wilt on the vine technique benefiting Pakistan.

If you noticed, sensor ‘B’ from the Islamic principle of moderation has not addressed the mafia cartel even with a moderate approach. It has also not addressed the cartel because the algorithm ran independently of the current obstacles of the cartels in the PPCR optimization runs.

When necessary, sensor ‘B’ will communicate with sensor “A.” In which case, “A” would formulate essential questions. That is,

a)      What is the one thing Pakistan can do to address external debt? Or

b)      What one action will make the future 40% graduates not joining the unemployment ranks? Or

c)      What one thing Pakistan can do to make the mafia cartels (Media, about 300 business owners, two thieving politician families, religious maulvis and judges with bad faith) wilt on the vine?

To answer “a,” floating gold-backed digital currency is a wilt on the vine technique to address external debt for a few reasons. One is, the typical inverse value correlation between gold to dollar. Dollar is expected to debase.

To answer “b,” the graduating mix should heavily concentrate on degrees specializing in AI.

To answer “c,” with diminished justice system and the States’ capabilities, the behavioral stratagems for Military Courts, selective forced disappearances, and negotiations with bad people undermines the moderate strategy in growing the conceptual PPCR.  

These steps will prepare grounds for the people accepting sensor “A’s” future logical answers to the essential question. Many that will wilt obstacles on the vine.

In the second cycle, sensors “A” and “C” communicates. Greater services are identified to participate in the digital currency. Participation generates a greater tax volume. New taxation of a lesser burden is a relief for reducing bad taxes on energy and fuel. 

In the third cycle, sensor “C” substantially increases the PPCR work plain. It applies sensor “B’s” wilt on the vine logic. That is, any move that brings prosperity to people is a threat to the mafia cartel and the inefficient Western institutions in Pakistan, which by now are nonfunctional.

Therefore, the algorithm consolidates assets into sets under ownership of a bank. For example, all of the Fauji Foundation’s assets are now under the ownership of Askari Bank, which is owned or managed by Fauji. This bank opts to operate on the Islamic principle of sharing profit and losses.

These banks can potentially distribute an estimated 33 percent profits Vs the current banks with up to 9 percent interest targets. As a result, these banks can attract the world’s foreign exchange deposits. In the case of Fauji/Askari, it must then assist with paying off Pakistan’s debt, and look after the wellbeing of the people.

In the fourth cycle of algorithm, sensor “B” applies additional wilt on the vine logic because these cartels are not oasis. Prosperity from Askari type ventures will wilt these false oases, including some of the banks.

Adopting a new finical system is foreseeable, just not in Pakistan. The vicious circle of fiat currency debasing has begun in the West. When a monetary system fails, which it has, the Fed adopts a measure of Quantitative Easing (QE) – Prints money. Then Fed buys a fixed amount of treasury bonds. When QE fails, the Fed resorts to a more drastic measure—maintaining bond Yield Curve Control (YCC). Here, Fed buys unlimited amount of bonds to maintain a capped bond yield. Australia’s failed YCC effort has lessons for other Central Banks.

Islam has a solid economic system. Lombard views the Muslims of the past as the “masters of gold.” The Muslim economics gave the world reserve currency that “unified the Byzantine and [Byzantine’s arch-rival Sassanid, the] Sassanid monetary system.” In Lombard’s view, the Muslims world gave an economic shock to the world of consequences. –Source: Abdallah Zouache; Oxford, 27-28 October 2017.

By the end of the fourth cycle, because the Islamic institution possess the quality of carrying no institutional costs, makes it the most efficient institution. It would have done its initial wonders by now. (The institution’s lesser cost to efficiency concept was once promoted by the Nobel prizewinner Douglas North.) –Source: Id. From institutional efficiency, the algorithm in subsequent cycles can reach out to silos of external data to increase the PPCR.

For instance, sensor “A” can diffuse into itself, what is now found in the European institutional concepts, by coining another essential question. What is the one thing Pakistan can do “to attract the most efficient merchants.”? Read Braudel scholarship about the 1288 decree “published by the Mamluk authorities.” It was later copied by the Europeans. Source: Id.

In the new system, Pakistan can very well accomplish many of the features of CPEC by running the algorithm, and reach out in a decree to the efficient merchants—China being one.

China is a believer and is spending, but China’s spending on CPEC goes against the grain of the economic fundamentals of Islam when it is applied to Pakistan. Pakistan is borrowing, which is not spending from what He has provided for them.

The readers are left to ponder over the cliché, “absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Pakistan army or the Fauji Foundation could become the absolute powers. China is an absolute power, and has taken millions out of poverty. South Korea is flourishing under an authoritarian rule. 

Strengthening Fauji conforms to the Western business methods—mergers and reorganization, and the wilting methods are taken again after capitalism, which has wilted the middle class on the vine while sparing the one percent rich. No hearts should be saddened to wilt the Pakistani obstacles on the vine that includes judges.

The example of China is before us. In Dr. Yukon Huang’s view, government corruption in China strengthens the State. Similarly, if wilting the mafia and obstacles in the PPCR is remotely seen as corruption, it will strengthen the State of Pakistan.

Should solutions fail to financially revive Pakistan; Pakistan will plummet from debt stress. Pakistan army in the absence of a collapsed government will adapt to a controlled civil war. The evidence of this experience is there. The Swat Valley crises from 2007-2009, was an event that can be looked into as, at the behest of the West, it was a Musharraf triggered controlled civil war that materialized real estate corruption, and has strengthened the army and the State.

In a controlled civil war, with a partial failure of legal tender laws, the reverse of Gresham’s Law will apply. Good money will drive out bad. Sensor “A” prompts “C” to prepare for Gresham’s Law to play out to help strengthen the economics of country.

Absolute wisdom is for the divine. As far as a soldier’s integrity, for one soldier who has departed his ranks, unequivocally believed, a solder must be true to his profession and his country. –Source: Brig. Gen. M. Hamid-Uddin, Looking Back.

Can Pakistan “rise like a phoenix […] No one could have witnessed what you did to me […] Once I’m reborn.”?

Bio: Mian Hameed is the author of MANIPULATION OF THE MIND: Our Children and Our Policy at Peril. He is a student of the U.S. and South Asia foreign policy. My articles do not present the conventional thoughts of the mainstream media. To read my work, click the Home link below.