INDIA’S WAR WITH PAKISTAN OR A SILENT PARTITION?

In the wake of April 22, 2025, Pahalgam terrorist attack in the Indian occupied Kashmir, is India posturing for an all out war to capture Pakistan occupied Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan or to score a greater Indian wish list—Bifurcation of Pakistan?

Alternatives and Risks

Certainly, Pakistan is at its weakest point and a decapitating blow can cut Pakistan to size. Wars are viable options only when all alternatives have failed and there is no risk. In the context of India and Pakistan, both factors are present.

Alternatives—Implosion: Pakistan is on a path to implosion, but this is not due to failed alternatives. Per my article here, the reason for this implosion is that the Pakistan Army is subject to foreign institutional capture. The military establishment is now aligned not with the people of Pakistan, but with the interests of India, Israel, and the support of the United States. After April 2022, these alignments were not policy shifts; they were signals of compliance.

Risk: India is deeply aware of the risk of nuclear tripwires. Even if the Pakistani military command is compromised, India cannot be certain whether lower-tier nuclear custodians or nationalist actors will react unpredictably.

Pakistan Army Responding out of Institutional Capture

War is unnecessary if a country is politically disarmed, economically deflated, and morally delegitimized from within. (Morally delegitimized means, a country’s own internal actions, institutions, or leadership have eroded its moral credibility in the eyes of its own people.) When there is no Imran Khan, no credible military leadership, no economic dignity, and no popular trust—then the bifurcation map is already redrawn.

The Silent Partition. When Will the Plan to Bifurcate Pakistan Be Activated?

In April 2022, a political earthquake shook Pakistan. Prime Minister Imran Khan—popular, nationalist, and fiercely independent, was ousted under a vote of no confidence, what many observers now view as a foreign-backed regime change. What followed wasn’t just political turmoil. It was the starting point of a quiet unraveling.

What if we told you the partition of Pakistan has already begun—not through military invasion, but through institutional decay, economic collapse, and strategic surrender?

Phase 1: Hollowing from Within (April 2022 – Ongoing)

The post Imran Khan era marked the rapid realignment of Pakistan’s military and civilian leadership—not with its people, but with foreign interests.

• Removal of nationalist leadership (Imran Khan)
• Talk of recognizing Israel surfaced.
• Trade with India was floated despite atrocities in Kashmir.
• Pro-Palestinian protests were banned—unprecedented for a Muslim-majority country.

These were not coincidences. These were compliance signals to the U.S., India, and Israel.

The military, long the self-styled guardian of national integrity, is now seen by many as compromised—no longer a shield, but a sieve.

Phase 2: Economic Weaponization (2022–2025)

Without a single bullet fired, Pakistan’s economic sovereignty was gutted:

• IMF bailouts dictated domestic policy.
• The rupee collapsed, eroding national pride and purchasing power.
• Provincial resentments intensified, especially in Baluchistan, KP, and Sindh.

Collapse doesn’t need an army. It just needs the right economic chokeholds. Pakistan is being partitioned through poverty.

Phase 3: Identity as a Weapon & Internal Flashpoints (2025-2027)

By 2025, expect the slow burn to ignite:

• Baloch separatists are reframed as “freedom fighters.”
• PTM activists become international human rights symbols.
• Sindhi nationalism receives sudden Western media attention.

Kashmir, too, is reframed—not as a bilateral dispute, but as a “region vulnerable to Pakistan’s instability.”

When this moment comes, India doesn’t need to act. The world will invite India in, framing it as a stabilizer, not an aggressor.

Phase 4: Partition by Pretext (2027–2030)

The final phase doesn’t involve tanks—it involves narratives:

• A nuclear scare, real or false-flagged, sparks international alarm.
• UN bodies call for intervention to prevent “regional catastrophe.”
• AJK and Gilgit-Baltistan are neutralized or absorbed.
• Baluchistan and Sindh are internationalized or declared “liberated republics.”
• Bifurcation of Pakistan is not likely after war, but after controlled internal collapse.
• A landlocked Punjab remains, defanged and directionless—there is no greater Punjab.

This is partition without declaration. No borders moved by force—but moved by collapse.

The Real War Was Never Fought

The West, Israel, and India have understood what many in Pakistan still resist:

You don’t need to destroy a nation if you can convince (or buy off) its elite to abandon it from within.

No coup, no missile, no war.

Just silence.
Just surrender.
Just disintegration—masked as diplomacy.

Indian Abrogation of Indus Water Treaty (IWT) brokered by the World Bank (1960)

If India keeps the Indus Waters Treaty intact, then the strategy remains: let Pakistan collapse from within.

If India breaks the IWT, this is a move so severe, it bypasses the slow collapse and forces Pakistan into a corner. It would be an act of war by hydrology. Pakistan may not last more than eighteen (18) months by India reducing the flow by 15–25% and Pakistan overdrawing ground water. It’s a geostrategic shift from containment to conquest—one that might force even a compromised Pakistani state to choose war, not for honor, but for survival.

Final Thought

Pahalgram terrorist attack is tied to India asking for concessions and a hybrid war against Pakistan; it is tied to fueling the catalysts of the aforementioned phases and the prestige India lost following the 2019 Balakot surgical strike when the calculus changed—Imran Khan and General Hayat opted for a response to the Indian 2019 aggression (surgical strike) that took both India and Washington think tanks by surprise, especially since General Bajwa had previously assured them he would look the other way.

Pakistan is not being partitioned by its enemies. It’s being abandoned by its custodians. Unless sovereignty is reclaimed—economically, politically, and spiritually—the redrawing of borders will be a formality, not a shock.

And the world won’t even call it partition.

They’ll call it peace or anything.

Bio: Mian Hameed is the author of MANIPULATION OF THE MIND: Our Children and Our Policy at Peril. He is a student of the U.S. and South Asia foreign policy. My articles do not present the conventional thoughts of the mainstream media. To read my work, click the Home link below.